Update of likelihood-based ground-motion model selection for seismic hazard analysis in western central Europe     

Esther Hintersberger  Frank Scherbaum  Sebastian Hainzl 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2007,5(1):1-16

Scherbaum et al. [(2004) Bull Seismolo Soc Am 94(6): 2164–2185] proposed a likelihood-based approach to select and rank ground-motion models for seismic hazard analysis in regions of low-seismicity. The results of their analysis were first used within the PEGASOS project [Abrahamson et al. (2002), In Proceedings of the 12 ECEE, London, 2002, Paper no. 633] so far the only application of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) in Europe which was based on a SSHAC Level 4 procedure [(Budnitz et al. 1997, Recommendations for PSHA: guidance on uncertainty and use of experts. No. NUREG/CR-6372-V1). The outcome of this project have generated considerable discussion (Klügel 2005, Eng Geol 78:285–307, 2005b) Eng Geol 78: 285–307, (2005c) Eng Geol 82: 79–85 Musson et al. (2005) Eng Geol 82(1): 43–55]; Budnitz et al. (2005), Eng Geol 78(3–4): 285–307], a central part of which is related to the issue of ground-motion model selection and ranking. Since at the time of the study by Scherbaum et al. [(2004.) Bull Seismolo Soc Am 94(6): 2164–2185], only records from one earthquake were available for the study area, here we test the stability of their results using more recent data. Increasing the data set from 12 records of one earthquake in Scherbaum et al. [(2004) Bull Seismolo Soc Am 94(6): 2164–2185] to 61 records of 5 earthquakes, which have mainly occurred since the publication of the original study, does not change the set of the three top-ranked ground-motion models [Abrahamson and Silva (1997) Seismolo Res Latt 68(1): 94–127; Lussou et al. (2001) J Earthquake Eng 5(1):13–33; Berge-Thierry et al. (2003) Bull Seismolog Soc Am 95(2): 377–389. Only for the lower-ranked models do we obtain modifications in the ranking order. Furthermore, the records from the Waldkirch earthquake (Dec, 5th, 2004, M _w = 4.9) enabled us to develop a new stochastic model parameter set for the application of Campbell’s [(2003) Bull Seismolo Soc Am 93(3): 1012–1033] hybrid empirical model to SW Germany and neighbouring regions.  相似文献   

Permeability and degassing of dome lavas undergoing rapid decompression: An experimental determination   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Sebastian Mueller  Oleg Melnik  Oliver Spieler  Bettina Scheu  Donald B. Dingwell 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2005,67(6):526-538

The gas permeability of volcanic rocks may influence various eruptive processes. The transition from a quiescent degassing dome to rock failure (fragmentation) may, for example, be controlled by the rocks permeability, in as much as it affects the speed by which a gas overpressure in vesicles is reduced in response to decompression. Using a modified shock-tube-based fragmentation bomb (Alidibirov and Dingwell 1996a,b; Spieler et al. 2003a), we have measured unsteady-state permeability at a high initial pressure differential. Following sudden decompression above the rock cylinder, pressurized gas flows through the sample. Two pressure transducers record the pressure signals above and below the sample. A transient 1D filtration code has been developed to calculate permeability using the experimental decay curve of the lower pressure transducer. Additionally an analytical steady-state method to achieve permeability is presented as an alternative to swiftly predict the sample permeability in a sufficiently precise manner. Over 100 permeability measurements have been performed on samples covering a wide range of porosity. The results show a general positive relationship between porosity and permeability with a high data scatter. Our preferred interpretation of the results is a combination of two different, but overlapping effects. We propose that at low porosities, gas escape occurs predominantly through microcracks or elongated micropores and therefore could be described by simplified forms of Kozeny–Carman relations (Carman 1956) and fracture flow models. At higher porosities, the influence of vesicles becomes progressively stronger as they form an increasingly connected network. Therefore, a model based on the percolation theory of fully penetrable spheres is used, as a first approximation, to describe the permeability-porosity trend. In the data acquired to date it is evident, that in addition to the porosity control, the samples bubble size, shape and distribution strongly influence the permeability. This leads to a range of permeability values up to 2.5 orders of magnitude at a given porosity.  相似文献   

The Eugen Seibold coral mounds offshore western Morocco: oceanographic and bathymetric boundary conditions of a newly discovered cold-water coral province     

Silke Glogowski  Wolf-Christian Dullo  Peter Feldens  Volker Liebetrau  Jonas von Reumont  Veit Hühnerbach  Sebastian Krastel  Russell B. Wynn  Sascha Flögel 《Geo-Marine Letters》2015,35(4):257-269

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The planet formation imager     

John D. Monnier  Stefan Kraus  Michael J. Ireland  Fabien Baron  Amelia Bayo  Jean-Philippe Berger  Michelle Creech-Eakman  Ruobing Dong  Gaspard Duchêne  Catherine Espaillat  Chris Haniff  Sebastian Hönig  Andrea Isella  Attila Juhasz  Lucas Labadie  Sylvestre Lacour  Stephanie Leifer  Antoine Merand  Ernest Michael  Stefano Minardi  Christoph Mordasini  David Mozurkewich  Johan Olofsson  Claudia Paladini  Romain Petrov  Jörg-Uwe Pott  Stephen Ridgway  Stephen Rinehart  Keivan Stassun  Jean Surdej  Theo ten Brummelaar  Neal Turner  Peter Tuthill  Kerry Vahala  Gerard van Belle  Gautam Vasisht  Ed Wishnow  John Young  Zhaohuan Zhu 《Experimental Astronomy》2018,46(3):517-529

The Planet Formation Imager (PFI, www.planetformationimager.org) is a next-generation infrared interferometer array with the primary goal of imaging the active phases of planet formation in nearby star forming regions. PFI will be sensitive to warm dust emission using mid-infrared capabilities made possible by precise fringe tracking in the near-infrared. An L/M band combiner will be especially sensitive to thermal emission from young exoplanets (and their disks) with a high spectral resolution mode to probe the kinematics of CO and H₂O gas. In this paper, we give an overview of the main science goals of PFI, define a baseline PFI architecture that can achieve those goals, point at remaining technical challenges, and suggest activities today that will help make the Planet Formation Imager facility a reality.  相似文献   

Establishing the skill of climate field reconstruction techniques for precipitation with pseudoproxy experiments     

Gómez-Navarro  Juan José  Werner  Johannes  Wagner  Sebastian  Luterbacher  Jürg  Zorita  Eduardo 《Climate Dynamics》2015,45(5-6):1395-1413

Climate Dynamics - This study aims at assessing the skill of several climate field reconstruction techniques (CFR) to reconstruct past precipitation over continental Europe and the Mediterranean at...  相似文献   

On the Tropical Atlantic SST warm bias in the Kiel Climate Model   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Sebastian Wahl  Mojib Latif  Wonsun Park  Noel Keenlyside 《Climate Dynamics》2011,36(5-6):891-906

Most of the current coupled general circulation models show a strong warm bias in the eastern Tropical Atlantic. In this paper, various sensitivity experiments with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM) are described. A largely reduced warm bias and an improved seasonal cycle in the eastern Tropical Atlantic are simulated in one particular version of KCM. By comparing the stable and well-tested standard version with the sensitivity experiments and the modified version, mechanisms contributing to the reduction of the eastern Atlantic warm bias are identified and compared to what has been proposed in literature. The error in the spring and early summer zonal winds associated with erroneous zonal precipitation seems to be the key mechanism, and large-scale coupled ocean?Catmosphere feedbacks play an important role in reducing the warm bias. Improved winds in boreal spring cause the summer cooling in the eastern Tropical Atlantic (ETA) via shoaling of the thermocline and increased upwelling, and hence reduced sea surface temperature (SST). Reduced SSTs in the summer suppress convection and favor the development of low-level cloud cover in the ETA region. Subsurface ocean structure is shown to be improved, and potentially influences the development of the bias. The strong warm bias along the southeastern coastline is related to underestimation of low-level cloud cover and the associated overestimation of surface shortwave radiation in the same region. Therefore, in addition to the primarily wind forced response at the equator both changes in surface shortwave radiation and outgoing longwave radiation contribute significantly to reduction of the warm bias from summer to fall.  相似文献   

Rapid directivity detection by azimuthal amplitude spectra inversion   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

Simone Cesca  Sebastian Heimann  Torsten Dahm 《Journal of Seismology》2011,15(1):147-164

An early detection of the presence of rupture directivity plays a major role in the correct estimation of ground motions and risks associated to the earthquake occurrence. We present here a simple method for a fast detection of rupture directivity, which may be additionally used to discriminate fault and auxiliary planes and have first estimations of important kinematic source parameters, such as rupture length and rupture time. Our method is based on the inversion of amplitude spectra from P-wave seismograms to derive the apparent duration at each station and on the successive modelling of its azimuthal behaviour. Synthetic waveforms are built assuming a spatial point source approximation, and the finite apparent duration of the spatial point source is interpreted in terms of rupture directivity. Since synthetic seismograms for a point source are calculated very quickly, the presence of directivity may be detected within few seconds, once a focal mechanism has been derived. The method is here first tested using synthetic datasets, both for linear and planar sources, and then successfully applied to recent Mw 6.2–6.8 shallow earthquakes in Peloponnese, Greece. The method is suitable for automated application and may be used to improve kinematic waveform modelling approaches.  相似文献   

Distribution of intact and core GDGTs in marine sediments   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Xiaolei LiuJulius Sebastian Lipp  Kai-Uwe Hinrichs 《Organic Geochemistry》2011,42(4):368-375

We conducted a survey of archaeal GDGT (glycerol dibiphytanyl glycerol tetraether) distributions in marine sediments deposited in a range of depositional settings. The focus was comparison of two pools presumed to have distinct geobiological significance, i.e. intact polar GDGTs (IP GDGTs) and core GDGTs (C GDGTs). The former pool has been suggested to be related to living communities of benthic archaea in marine sediments, while the latter is commonly interpreted to consist of molecular fossils from past planktonic archaeal communities that inhabited the surface ocean. Understanding the link between these two pools is important for assessment of the validity of current molecular proxies for sedimentary archaeal biomass and past sea surface temperatures. The relative distributions of GDGTs in the two pools in a core at a CH₄ rich site in the Black Sea provide evidence for in situ production of glycosidic IP GDGTs and their subsequent degradation to corresponding C GDGTs on timescales that are short in geological terms. In addition, we monitored the relationship between the IP GDGT and C GDGT pools in a sample set from various ocean basins with subseafloor depth from a few cm to 320 m and 0 to 4 Myr in age. Notable differences between the two pools can be summarized as follows: the GDGT with acyclic biphytanes, GDGT-0, and its analogues with two and three cyclopentane moieties (GDGT-2 and -3) are generally more abundant in the pool of IP GDGTs, while crenarchaeol tends to be more abundant in the C GDGT pool. Consequently, the ring index is generally higher for the C GDGTs while TEX₈₆, a molecular proxy ratio not considering the two major GDGTs, tends to be higher in the IP GDGT pool. These differences in the proportion of individual GDGTs in the two pools are probably due to in situ production of IP GDGTs with distributions differing from those of C GDGTs. Despite these differences, we observed significant correlation of these two ratios between the two pools. Specifically, in both pools TEX₈₆ is high in sediments from warm oceanic regimes and low in cold regimes. We discuss these relationships and suggest that recycling of core GDGTs by benthic archaea is an important mechanism linking both molecular pools.  相似文献   

Speleothems and pine trees as sensitive indicators of environmental pollution – A case study of the effect of uranium-ore mining in Hungary     

Zoltan Siklosy  Zoltan Kern  Attila Demeny  Sebastian Pilet  Szabolcs Leel-Ossy  Ke Lin  Chuan-Chou Shen  Eva Szeles  Daniel Breitner 《Applied Geochemistry》2011,26(5):666-678

Four decades of U ore production in Hungary provides an opportunity to study the possible environmental effects of mining. The study reveals significant changes in chemical composition of a stalagmite (cave deposit). The good fit between U content changes in the studied deposit and the U ore production rate support the assumption of the relationship with mining activity. An independent chemoenviromental archive, living pine (Pinus sylvestis) trees were also investigated. Data on pine tree cores collected from the same region show different levels of pollution (Cu, Zn, Mn, U) after the 1950s and 1960s, linked to the opening of mines and subsequent dust fallout around the site. Elevated concentrations of detritally derived elements (Si, Al, Th) coupled with a rise in U concentration and change in δ²³⁴U values of the stalagmite suggest increasing amounts of mine-derived dust from 1 to 3 km distance that settled and washed into the karst system. The combined usage of different proxies not only provides historic records for the anthropogenic impact in the environment, but also allows the timing of U concentration increases within the stalagmite and the identification of elemental behavior from the pollution. This study shows that complementary geochemical archives such as stalagmites and tree rings used together can enhance understanding of past environmental contamination.  相似文献   

Structural evolution of the Piqiang Fault Zone,NW Tarim Basin,China     

Sebastian A. Turner  Jian G. Liu  John W. Cosgrove 《Journal of Asian Earth Sciences》2011,40(1):394-402

The Piqiang Fault is a prominent strike-slip (tear) fault that laterally partitions the Keping Shan Thrust Belt in the NW Tarim Basin, China. In satellite images, the Piqiang Fault appears as a sharp, NW-trending lineament that can be traced for more than 70 km. It is oblique to the general structural trend of the thrust belt and subparallel to the thrust transport direction. This paper presents a structural analysis of the Piqiang Fault, based on satellite image interpretation and field data. A net loss of Late Paleozoic sediment across the fault zone implies that it was initiated as a major normal fault during the Early Permian, and corresponds to widespread extension and magmatism during this period. Differential erosion across the fault resulted in the subsequent removal of sediment from the east relative to the west. During the Middle to Late Cenozoic, contraction of the NW Tarim Basin and the formation of the Keping Shan Thrust Belt resulted in reactivation of the Piqiang Fault as a strike-slip (tear) fault. The fault has accommodated lateral differences in thrust density and spacing which have arisen due to the abrupt, pre-existing change in stratigraphic thickness across it. The Piqiang Fault provides an insight into the formation of oblique, strike-slip (tear) faults in contractional belts and demonstrates the importance of inherited basement structures in such settings.  相似文献